tmp-visual
Student BIOS

YU Qiwei

PhD Candidate in Environmental Science, Policy and Management

MPhl in Atmospheric Environmental Modelling, HKUST
B.S in Statistics, HKBU-UIC

Email: qyu@ust.hk

Supervisor:  Prof. LAU Alexis       Co-Supervisor: Prof. CHAN Kwing Lam

Research Topic  
Assessing Future Damage: Quantifying the Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flood for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta
Keywords  
Statistical (climate) data analysis, Climate Change adaptation, useR
Abstract  

This study proposes a framework to assess climate-change related regional flood risk in future based on global historical flood information. The framework is applied for assessing coastal flood risks induced by sea level rise, focusing on death, displacement and economic loss for Hong Kong and the south China’s Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. The analysis uses statistical approaches to combine the global historical flood information with nation-level development indicators and local sea level characteristics to assess the local/regional flood damages by 2050 and 2100. The advantage of this method is its ability to harness historical flood damage archive to establish a global-national-regional/local and history-future evaluation framework. Following the terminology from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report on extreme events (IPCC SREX), the three disaster risk determinants (climate extremes, exposure and vulnerability) are quantified in our framework to estimate the potential damages. Our analysis reveals that sea level rise will significantly increase the probability of extreme flood events in this region. For instance, with 40 cm of sea level rise by 2100, a flood event that is expected to occur every twenty years now is likely to become an annual event. Such event is estimated to cost economic damage of USD 300 million and USD 100 million for Hong Kong and the PRD region, respectively. Our results suggest the reinforcement of regional disaster risk management and adaptation in long-term planning to reduce flood exposure and vulnerability, thus lessen the risks and damages in this region. The framework we present in this study can also be applied to assessing the impact of other natural hazards (e.g. heat waves), if the appropriate datasets can be collected.

Extracurricular Activities/Volunteer Work
Type Position Held Participation Period Name of Organization
Tai O Dragon Boat Tour Volunteer of Dragon Boat culture communication 2014-06-06 to 2014-06-08 HKUST
< Back