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Student BIOS

ZHANG Xuguo

PhD in Environmental Science, Policy and Management - 2020

Master in Applied Mathematics, University College London (UCL), United Kingdom
Bachelor in Applied Mathematics, Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU), China

Email: xzhangbg@ust.hk

Supervisor:  Prof. FUNG Jimmy       Co-Supervisor: Prof. TSE Tim

Research Topic  
Numerical Model Sensitivity Analysis and the Three-dimensional Variational Data Fusion Approach for Optimizing Air Quality Forecasting
Keywords  
Data Fusion/Assimilation, Sensitivity Analysis, Air Pollution Forecasting, Emission Processing Modelling, Air Quality Modelling, Greater Bay Area.
Abstract  

The booming of the economy in Hong Kong (HK) and the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone (PRD EZ) results in severe air pollution problems. Efficient data driven-based policy-making is of great importance in coping with the challenges. This thesis, with its focus on air quality modelling, applies the sensitivity analysis methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of integrated emission control policies and cross-boundary sectoral contributions to provide a holistic emission control potentials. A novel three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) coupled modelling system is set to fusing hourly surface observations to investigate the Spatio-temporal variations of air pollution. This Ph.D. defense will illustrate three parts. Firstly, a new framework of refining production-based emission inventory is proposed to explore the yearlong Spatio-temporal variation of PM2.5 and O3 in HK and PRD EZ. Results of Spatio-temporal analysis confirm the model capable of reproducing the two-pollutant concentrations in most cities for most months. Secondly, hypothetical dynamical scenario studies are carried out to evaluate China’s emission reduction policies in the 13th Five-Year-Plan and short-term measures in HK. An integrated emission control potential map covering various emission sectors gradually extending to the whole of China is present for the first time. Calculating the health co-benefits of O3 formation confirms the effectiveness of the control policies. The central government adopts the feasibility of tightening specific pollutants in HK using the scenario study from 2020 to 2025. Thirdly, a 3D-Var coupled data assimilation system illustrating detailed Spatio-temporal variations of pollutant concentration aims to improve the boundary conditions for the nested model running-mode. The impact of the data assimilation frequency, multiple pollutant assimilations, and the assimilated analysis and forecast benefits are discussed. One key finding is that assimilating PM2.5 on the outermost domain brings substantial improvement of the PM2.5 model simulations for the innermost domain of which is a potential substitute method comparing with the previous domain-wide data fusion algorithms. The coupled data assimilation system could be a useful tool for improving air quality forecasting and diagnosing model deficiencies. Lastly, potential future research directions will be discussed, as well.

Journal Publication
Xuguo Zhang*; Jimmy C. H. Fung; Alexis K. H. Lau; Wei (Wayne) Huang (2019) Assessing the emission scenarios for 2020, the impacts of integrated emission control policies, and the measures of PM2.5 in China. 18th Annual CMAS conference, , .
Xuguo Zhang; Jimmy C. H. Fung*; Yumiao Zhang; Alexis K. H. Lau; Kenneth K. M. Leung; Wei (Wayne) Huang (2020) Assessing PM2.5 emissions in 2020: The impacts of integrated emission control policies in China. Environmental Pollution , 263 Part A, doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114575.
Che, Wenwei; Frey, H. Christopher; Fung, Jimmy C.H.; Ning, Zhi; Qu, Huamin; Lo, Hong Kam; Chen, Lei; Wong, Tze-Wai; Wong, Michelle K.M.; Lee, Ophelia C.W.; Carruthers, David; Cheung, Freeman; Chan, Jimmy W.M.; Yeung, David W.; Fung, Yik Him; Zhang, Xuguo; (2020) PRAISE-HK: A personalized real-time air quality informatics system for citizen participation in exposure and health risk management. Sustainable Cities and Society, 54, doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101986.
Presentations/Talks
Title Date Length Type and Location
Delay Differential Equations and its Application in Developmental Biology 2012-07-05 20 minites Orlando, Florida, United States
Teaching Assistant
Semester Course Code Course Title Class Size
2014-15 Spring ENVR 4320 Corporate Environmental Accounting and Reporting 30
2015-16 Fall ENVR 3003 Green Buildings and Energy Efficiency 50
2015-16 Spring ENVR 6040D Corporate Environmental Strategy 30
2016-17 Fall ENVR3003 Green Buildings and Energy Efficiency (Blended Learning) 52
2016-17 Fall TAC TAC 42
2016-17 Spring ENVR 6010G Postgraduate Seminar 42
2016-17 Spring TAC TAC 42
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